Latino Voter Turnout Expected to Rise Significantly
In San Antonio Mayoral Election
San Antonio, TX - The William C. Velásquez Institute is predicting that Latinos will represent 37% of total votes cast in the 2001 Mayoral Election. In a tight mayoral election, the predicted 36,600 Latino votes cast, a predicted 12% turnout of Latino registered voters, will significantly impact the outcome on May 5, reflecting history, which demonstrates that the majority of Latino votes are cast on Election Day and not during early voting.
As of May 2, 2001, the Bexar County Elections Office has tabulated 29,340 early votes and another 10,219 votes by mail. Based on WCVI's expected turnout of 14.5% registered voters, another 59,339 votes are expected on Election Day for a total Election Day turnout of 8.7%. This is compared to an expected election day Latino voter turnout of 10.1%. Currently Latinos represent 44.8% share of total registered voters.
The table below reflects Latino turnout and registered voter percentages for six elections over the last 24 years where there has been a perceived competitive Latino mayoral candidate. The table also includes overall turnout rates for the same elections. In those elections having a competitive Latino mayoral candidate, Latino vote share has averaged 39.4%. In elections lacking a competitive Latino mayoral candidate, the Latino vote share averaged 21.5%.
Political Participation of Latinos In San Antonio, Texas Mayoral Elections 1977 - 2001*
YEAR |
% LATINO
REGISTERED VOTERS |
% LATINO
TURNOUT |
% LATINO
VOTES CAST |
% OVERALL
TURNOUT |
1977 |
41.8 |
12.7 |
30.7 |
34.6 |
1981 |
40.9 |
55.9 |
56.8 |
40.4 |
1983 |
42.4 |
15.9 |
43.6 |
16.8 |
1985 |
42.6 |
25.5 |
35.8 |
29.9 |
1987 |
39.4 |
29.3 |
40.1 |
29 |
1991 |
38.9 |
22.8 |
29.2 |
32 |
Avg. for elections with a competitive Latino
mayoral candidate |
|
|
39.4 |
|
Avg. for elections without a competitive Latino mayoral candidate |
|
|
21.5 |
|
2001* |
44.8 |
12 |
37 |
14.5 |
*Projected estimates
"The data clearly suggests that the Latino share of total votes cast is nearly double, 39.4 to 21.5%, when a competitive Latino mayoral candidate is running. Based on this trend, the expectation is that the Latino electorate will have its highest share of votes cast since 1987," said Antonio Gonzalez, President of the William C. Velásquez Institute. Since the inception of term limits in 1993, the Latino vote share has averaged approximately 23%. Prior to term limits, Latino vote share was as high as 56.8%, averaging 34.4% between 1977 and 1991, a level achieved during the 1981 mayoral election, which was Henry Cisneros' first election attempt. |
