Southwest Battle Ground States Phone Survey September 2004

Press Release

September 2004
WCVI - MirRam Group Survey
606 Interviews Among Hispanic Voters
Margin of Error +/-4%

A. GENDER (BY OBSERVATION)

50% Male
50% Female
 

B. LANGUAGE OF INTERVIEW

24% Spanish
76% English
 

 

SCREENERS

 

1. Are you 18 years of age or older and of Hispanic origin or descent?

100% Yes  

2. Are you registered to vote at this address? (IF YES, ASK) With which political party are you registered to vote?

59% REGISTERED-Democrat
25% REGISTERED-Republican
13% REGISTERED-Independent/Unenrolled
2% REGISTERED-Other
 

3. In general, which language do you use most often? (READ 1-5)

5% Spanish only with no English
7% Mostly Spanish with some English
27% Both Spanish and English equally
30% Mostly English with some Spanish
30% English only with no Spanish
*% Don’t know/ Refused
 

4. Which nationality group are you mainly descended from? (READ LIST IF NECESSARY. ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES)

3% Puerto Rican
1% Dominican
1% Cuban
49% Mexican
1% Colombian
*% El Salvadorian
*% Ecuadorian
2% Guatemalan
*% Honduran
*% Nicaraguan
*% Panamanian
*% Costa Rican
1% Brazilian
15% Other (South American, Chilean, Peruvian, Argentinean, Venezuelan, Uruguayan, Paraguayan)
23% Other
4% Don’t know/Refused
 

 

VOTING AND THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

 

Now thinking about the job George W. Bush is doing as President and the upcoming elections for President and other offices…

5. How would you rate the job George Bush is doing as President? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, good, not so good, or a poor job?

15% Excellent
29% Good
23% Not so good
32% Poor
2% Don’t know/Refused
Net positive 44%

Net negative 55%


6. And how would you rate the job George Bush is doing serving the Hispanic community? Would you say George Bush is doing an excellent job, good, not so good, or a poor job serving the Hispanic community?

8% Excellent
25% Good
25% Not so good
31% Poor
10% Don’t know/Refused
Net positive 33%

Net negative 56%

NEW MEXICO ONLY:

7. How would you rate the job Bill Richardson is doing as Governor? Would you say he is doing an excellent job, good, not so good, or a poor job?

20% Excellent
54% Good
14% Not so good
10% Poor
1% Don’t know/Refused
Net positive 74%

Net negative 24%

ASK ALL:

8. What are the chances you will vote in the November 2004 election for President and other offices this year: are you almost certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote?

85% Almost certain
7% Probably
5% 50-50
2% Won’t vote
1% Don’t know/Refused
 

ASK IN COLORADO, NEW MEXICO AND NEVADA AND
IF Q8 = 1-3: (LIKELY GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS)


9. Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for President were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Republican George Bush, Democrat John Kerry, and Reform Party candidate Ralph Nader, for whom would you vote?

[IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, ASK: Toward which candidate are you leaning?]

32% George Bush
2% Lean George Bush

53% John Kerry
3% Lean John Kerry

1% Ralph Nader
1% Lean Ralph Nader

8% Undecided
1% Refused

Net Bush 34%

Net Kerry 56%

Net Nader 2%




ASK IN ARIZONA AND IF Q8 = 1-3: (LIKELY GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS)

9.Y. Thinking about the elections in November, if the election for President were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Republican George Bush and Democrat John Kerry for whom would you vote?

[IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, ASK: Toward which candidate are you leaning?]

38% George Bush
1% Lean Bush

49% John Kerry
3% Lean Kerry

8% Undecided
2% Refused

Net Bush 39%

Net Kerry 52%




10. Please choose the top 3 MOST important issues to you in determining your vote for President. (RECORD FIRST/SECOND/THIRD CHOICE)

25% Public education reforms
6% Legalizing school vouchers
10% Legalization for undocumented workers
33% Health care access
25% Strengthening jobs and wages
26% Homeland Security
35% War in Iraq
5% Crime
7% Building more affordable housing
24% Social Security
12% Raising the minimum wage
12% Balancing the budget
11% Tax cuts
3% Other
4% Don’t know/Refused
 

11.

ASK IN NEVADA AND IF Q8 = 1-3: (LIKELY GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS)

11.X Again thinking about the elections in November, if the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Republican Richard Ziser and Democrat Harry Reid, for whom would you vote?

[IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, ASK: Toward which candidate are you leaning?]

15% Richard Ziser
*% Lean Ziser

57% Harry Reid
2% Lean Reid

24% Undecided
2% Refused

Net Ziser 15%

Net Reid 59%




ASK IN COLORADO AND IF Q8 = 1-3: (LIKELY GENERAL ELECTION VOTERS)

11.Y Again thinking about the elections in November, if the election for Senate were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] Republican Pete Coors and Democrat Ken Salazar, for whom would you vote?

[IF UNDECIDED/REFUSED, ASK: Toward which candidate are you leaning?]

18% Pete Coors
2% Lean Coors

68% Ken Salazar
1% Lean Salazar

10% Undecided
1% Refused

Net Coors 20%

Net Salazar 69%



Thinking about the candidates for President, George Bush and John Kerry…

12. Overall, which candidate would you say is making more of an effort to reach out to the Hispanic community, (ROTATE) George Bush or John Kerry?

29% George Bush
41% John Kerry
9% Both
10% Neither
12% Don’t know/refused
 

Now I am going to read you a list of words and phrases people use to describe the candidates for President. For each word or phrase I read, please tell me which political candidate that word or phrase describes better – [ROTATE] George W. Bush or John Kerry.

13. Cares about people like you

30% George W. Bush
48% John Kerry
5% Both
10% Neither
6% Don’t know
*% Refused
 

14. Honest and trustworthy

30% George W. Bush
41% John Kerry
4% Both
15% Neither
9% Don’t know
1% Refused
 

15. Strong leader

42% George W. Bush
38% John Kerry
6% Both
6% Neither
8% Don’t know
*% Refused
 

16. Out of touch with the average American

45% George W. Bush
31% John Kerry
8% Both
5% Neither
10% Don’t know
1% Refused
 

17. Understands the needs of the U.S. Latino community

28% George W. Bush
39% John Kerry
5% Both
12% Neither
15% Don’t know
1% Refused
 

Now I am going to read you a list of different issues facing the Hispanic community. Generally speaking, I would like you to tell me which candidate you trust more to have the right approach to dealing with each issue I read.

18. The economy and jobs

57% Trust Kerry more
29% Trust Bush more
3% Trust both equally
5% Trust neither
6% Don’t know/Refused
 

19. National security

41% Trust Kerry more
45% Trust Bush more
5% Trust both equally
3% Trust neither
6% Don’t know/Refused
 

20. Health care

56% Trust Kerry more
29% Trust Bush more
3% Trust both equally
5% Trust neither
7% Don’t know/Refused
 

21. Education

51% Trust Kerry more
35% Trust Bush more
4% Trust both equally
5% Trust neither
6% Don’t know/Refused
 

22. Environment

56% Trust Kerry more
24% Trust Bush more
4% Trust both equally
6% Trust neither
10% Don’t know/Refused
 

23. Crime

41% Trust Kerry more
35% Trust Bush more
6% Trust both equally
8% Trust neither
9% Don’t know/Refused
 

24. War on drugs

36% Trust Kerry more
35% Trust Bush more
6% Trust both equally
11% Trust neither
12% Don’t know/Refused
 

25. Abortion

37% Trust Kerry more
34% Trust Bush more
2% Trust both equally
8% Trust neither
20% Don’t know/Refused

26. Foreign policy

44% Trust Kerry more
39% Trust Bush more
2% Trust both equally
5% Trust neither
10% Don’t know/Refused
 

27. Taxes

48% Trust Kerry more
36% Trust Bush more
2% Trust both equally
8% Trust neither
6% Don’t know/Refused
 

28. Immigration

41% Trust Kerry more
33% Trust Bush more
4% Trust both equally
9% Trust neither
13% Don’t know/Refused
 

 

THE ECONOMY

29. Thinking specifically about the economy, how would you rate the condition of the nation’s economy today – excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

4% Excellent
31% Good
37% Not so good
26% Poor
1% Don’t know/Refused
Net positive 35%

Net negative 63%

And thinking about the Bush tax cuts…

30. In your opinion, how much did you and your family benefit economically from President Bush’s tax cuts – a great deal, a lot, some, a little, or not at all?

6% A great deal
7% A lot
20% Some
25% A little
39% Not at all
3% Don’t know/Refused
 

31. Please tell me whether you personally agree or disagree with the following statement regarding the Bush tax cuts: The federal government has enough money to finance the education and health care systems, to pay for the war in Iraq, and to keep the Bush tax cuts in place. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with this statement?

13% Strongly agree Net agree 35%
22% Somewhat agree
16% Somewhat disagree Net disagree 56%
40% Strongly disagree
7% Don’t know
1% Refused
Net agree 35%

Net disagree 56%


32. When it comes to the tax cuts, do you think the federal government should: (READ)

12% Keep the all of the current tax cuts in place.
36% Keep the tax cuts for low-income and middle-class families but repeal the tax cuts for corporations and high-income taxpayers.
37% Repeal all of the tax cuts and use the money to fund the education and health care systems instead.
3% None of the above
9% Don’t know
2% Refused
 

33. Right now, which is more important for President Bush to focus on, the economy or the war on terrorism?

48% Economy
31% War on Terrorism
17% Both
1% Neither
3% Don’t know/Refused
 

34. Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq until a stable government is established there, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?

40% Keep troops
52% Bring home
3% Both/Depends
4% Don't know/Refused

 

HEALTH CARE

Now thinking about the issue of health care and the Hispanic community…

35. Which ONE of the following do you consider the most serious problems facing the health care system today? Is it….

(READ AND ROTATE RESPONSES)

20% That many Latinos lack health insurance coverage
11% That the Medicare/Medicaid system may run short of funds in coming years
6% The poor quality of doctors and healthcare professionals
14% The rising cost of prescription medications
26% The rising cost of health insurance
15% All of the above
1% None of the above
1% Other
6% Don’t know/Refused

36. As you may know, Congress passed a new Medicare law that includes some coverage of prescription drug costs and changes the way Medicare covers other medical expenses for senior citizens. Overall, would you say you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat DISapprove, or strongly DISapprove of these recent changes?

20% Strongly approve
30% Somewhat approve
13% Somewhat disapprove
23% Strongly disapprove
12% Don’t know
2% Refused
Net approve 50%

Net disapprove 36%



37. In your opinion, does the Medicare legislation go too far, not far enough, or is it about right in how much it covers prescription drugs for seniors?

8% Too far
61% Not far enough
18% About right
10% Don’t know
2% Refused

 

IMMIGRATION

Now I would like to ask you some questions pertaining to the issue of immigration…

38. Do you think there are too many, too few, or about the right amount of immigrants living in the United States today?

46% Too many
8% Too few
30% Right amount
16% Don’t know/Refused

39. Which of the following statements comes closer to your own point of view when it comes to the issue of immigration?

ROTATE

26% Statement A: The U.S. should allow some undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. to stay in this country for several years as long as they are working. These individuals would be required to return to their countries after no more than six years.

OR

55% Statement B: The U.S. should grant permanent residency to undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S. who pass a background check and who can show they have been working here for at least two years.

8% Neither
3% Both/Depends
7% Don’t Know/Refused

 

ARIZONA ONLY: Switching topics slightly…

39X. This November, voters will be asked to vote on Arizona’s Proposition 200, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, photo ID to vote, and proof of eligibility and immigration status to receive non-federal public benefits, such as welfare. If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no to approve Proposition 200? (IF “UNDECIDED/NOT SURE,” ASK: Which way would you say you are leaning?)

60% Yes,
4% Undecided, lean Yes
29% No,
2% Undecided, lean No
2% Undecided/Don’t know
3% Refused

40.
41.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Now, I’d like to ask you just a few questions for statistical purposes only.

42. What is your age please?

10% 18-24
14% 25-34
29% 35-49
9% 50-54
15% 55-64
20% 65+
1% Don’t know/Refused

43. What is the last grade of school you completed, or the highest degree you’ve received? (PROBE IF LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL FOR LAST GRADE COMPLETED. DO NOT READ LIST)

*% Grades 1 & 2
1% Grades 3 & 4
4% Grade 5-8
6% Grades 9-11
28% High school grad
29% Some college
21% College graduate
8% Post-grad
2% Don’t know/Refused

44. Are you presently:

17% Single
62% Married
9% Divorced
2% Separated
7% Widowed
2% Unmarried/living as a couple with someone
1% Don’t know/Refused

At this time, let me remind you that all of your answers will be kept strictly confidential.

45. In what country were you born? If you were born in Puerto Rico, please say so.

75% United States
16% Mexico
*% Puerto Rico
1% Cuba
*% Dominican Republic
*% El Salvador
1% Colombia
5% Other
1% Don’t know/Refused

46. How long have you lived in the United States?

1% Less than 5 years
3% 6-10 years
4% 11-15 years
6% 16-25 years
10% More than 25 years
75% Entire life
2% Don’t know/Refused

47. Are you currently employed full-time outside the home, employed part-time outside the home, are you self-employed, unemployed but looking for work, retired, a student, or a homemaker?

42% Employed full-time
7% Employed part-time
7% Self-Employed
7% Unemployed
26% Retired/Disabled
3% Student
7% Homemaker
1% Don’t know/Refused

48. If you added together your entire household’s income, in which of the following income categories would your family fall? Would that be: (READ 1-9)

7% $10,000 or less
12% $10,000-$20,000
13% $20,001-$30,000
12% $30,001-$40,000
11% $40,001-$50,000
9% $50,001-$60,000
6% $60,001-$70,000
9% $70,001-$100,000
6% More than $100,000
14% Don’t know/Refused

C. State

23% Arizona
25% New Mexico
25% Colorado
27% Nevada
 
How Do Latinos Vote?
Phone Poll, Exit Surveys & More
Phone Poll, Exit Surveys & More
Antonio Gonzalez On the Airwaves
Antonio Gonzalez On the Airwaves