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2006 WCVI Turnout Results

The turnout studies represented below are preliminary results from WCVI analysis of exit poll data, preliminary turnout data, and historical trend data. As more accurate information becomes available, WCVI will post revised turnout figures.

National Turnout Analysis
  Total Votes Cast Eligible Citizens* Turnout %
2006 General
83,000,000
205,581,000
40.4%
2002 General
78,489,821
197,913,000
39.7%
Total Change 02-06
+4,510,179
+7,668,000
Percent Change 02-06
+5.7%
+3.9%
       
  Latino Votes Cast Latino Registration Latino Turnout %
2006 General
5,810,000
9,867,888
58.9%
2002 General
4,747,000
8,196,000
57.9%
Total Change 02-06
+1,063,000
+1,671,888
Percent Change 02-06
+22.4%
+20.4%
 
       
  Latino Percent of Total Votes Cast Latino Percent of Total Registration  
2006 General 7.0% n/a  
2002 General 6.0% n/a  
Source: TVC / TVR – 2006/02 Center for the Study of the American Electorate (CSAE), 2006 WCVI Exit Polls, Census Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of 2002, analysis of 2006 National Exit Polls from CNN, AP, & LATimes. *Note: Methodology for CSAE Reports can be found on their website, http://spa.american.edu/ccps/files/File/csae/csae061109.pdf

 

California Turnout Analysis
  Total Votes Cast Total Registration Turnout %
2006 General
8,899,059
15,837,108
56.2%
2002 General
7,738,821
15,303,469
50.6%
Total Change 02-06
1,160,238
+533,639
Percent Change 02-06
+15.0%
+3.5%
       
  Latino Votes Cast Latino Registration Latino Turnout %
2006 General
1,423,849
2,863,001
49.7%
2002 General
975,000
2,500,000
39.0%
Total Change 02-06
+448,849
+363,001
Percent Change 02-06
+46.0%
+14.5%
 
       
  Latino Percent of Total Votes Cast Latino Percent of Total Registration  
2006 General
16.0%
18.1%
 
2002 General
12.6%
16.3%
 
Source: 2006 & 2002 WCVI Exit Polls, 2006 & 2002 California Secretary of State Elections, Analysis of 2006 National Exit Polls from CNN, AP, & LATimes.

 

Florida Turnout Analysis
  Total Votes Cast Total Registration Turnout %
2006 General
4,884,544
10,433,148
46.8%
2002 General
5,143,674
9,302,360
55.3%
Total Change 02-06
-259,130
1,130,788
Percent Change 02-06
-5.0%
+12.2%
       
  Latino Votes Cast Latino Registration Latino Turnout %
2006 General
586,145
1,147,646
51.1%
2002 General
639,000
914,000
69.9%
Total Change 02-06
-52,855
+233,646
Percent Change 02-06
-8.3%
+25.6%
       
  Latino Percent of Total Votes Cast Latino Percent of Total Registration  
2006 General
12.0%
11.0%
 
2002 General
12.4%
9.8%
 
Source: 2006 WCVI Exit Poll, 2006 & 2002 Florida Secretary of State Elections, Census
Bureau, Current Population Reports: Voting and Registration in the Election of 2002, Analysis of 2006 National Exit Polls from CNN, AP, & ABCNews.

 

Texas Turnout Analysis
  Total Votes Cast Total Registration Turnout %
2006 General
4,310,590
13,074,279
32.97%
2002 General
4,553,979
12,563,459
36.25%
Total Change 02-06
-243,389
+510,820
Percent Change 02-06
-5.3%
+4.1%
       
  Latino Votes Cast Latino Registration Latino Turnout %
2006 General
711,247
2,876,341
24.73%
2002 General
819,000
2,500,000
32.76%
Total Change 02-06
-107,753
+376,341
Percent Change 02-06
-13.2%
+15.1%
       
  Latino Percent of Total Votes Cast Latino Percent of Total Registration  
2006 General
16.50%
22.0%
 
2002 General
17.98%
19.9%
 
Source: 2006 & 2002 WCVI Exit Polls, 2006 & 2002 Texas Secretary of State Elections, Analysis of 2006 National Exit Polls from CNN, AP, & ABCNews.

About the Exit Survey

The William C. Velásquez Institute (WCVI) conducted an exit poll to measure how Latinos voted during the November 2006 General elections. The survey was administered by trained interviewers in both English and Spanish.  WCVI pollsters interviewed 1,215 Latino voters in 53 precincts in 8 states (Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois), which comprise 82% of all registered Latino voters. The sample was designed to cover 82% of all Latino voters in the country.  Precincts from 5% to 100% of registered Latino voters were included in the sample. The design is a stratified, two-stage, probability-based sample.  Precincts were included in the universe if they met minimum levels with respect to number and percentage of Latino voters.  Precincts were then stratified by geography and percent Latino voter population.  The voter’s poll touched on issues especially relevant to the Latino community which where either represented in the November election or are subject of on going local and national debate.

The margin of error for this study is + 2.8%. Results may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Margin of error higher for subgroups.

Simultaneously, WCVI also conducted separate exit surveys of Latino voters in California & Florida. WCVI Pollsters conducted 751 exit interviews in California, 431 exit interviews in Florida and 484 exit interviews in Texas. Each state survey duplicated the methodology of the national survey.

The margin of error for California was +/- 3.6%.

The margin of error for Florida was +/- 4.0%.

The margin of error for Texas was +/- 3.8%.

Margin of error higher for subgroups.

 

 

 
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