Los Angeles
Mayoral Race 2001


City of Los Angeles 2001 Mayoral Analysis

Pre-Election Analysis

For the June 2001 City of Los Angeles Mayoral Runoff Election WCVI reported that according to Political Data, Inc. the Latino Vote was 20.63% of total registered voters in the city. This constituted approximately 316,074 Latino voters out of 1.53 million total voters. Latinos held a voting majority in three of the fifteen council districts (District 1, 7 and 14). Three additional districts fell within the range of 25 to 49% Latino registered voters (District 9, 13 and 15).

City of Los Angeles, 2001
District
Total
Voter
Latino
Voter
% Latino
Voter Share
1
53,393
28,210
52.83%
2
106,082
24,699
22.88%
3
119,024
15,920
13.12%
4
123,440
13,523
10.89%
5
150,747
8,077
5.31%
6
136,888
14,044
10.17%
7
68,168
37,620
54.75%
8
105,291
13,196
12.30%
9
65,188
18,683
28.37%
10
82,560
15,019
17.94%
11
139,357
9,952
7.06%
12
131,533
18,531
13.79%
13
75,814
26,276
34.55%
14
79,000
45,201
56.99%
15
95,995
27,123
27.89%
Total
1,532,480
316,074
20.63%
Source: Political Data, Inc.,

Analysis of SVREP Non-partisan Campaign

Southwest Voter Registration Education Project (SVREP) ran a multi-faceted voter registration and education program throughout council districts, 1, 3, 7, 9, 13, 14 and 15. In a June turnout analysis, WCVI commissioned Political Data, Inc. to cross check all Latino registered voters contacted by SVREP with official election results. Political Data’s results showed that 61.43% of Latino voters targeted by SVREP, a universe of approximately 28,400, turned out to vote.

City of Los Angeles, SVREP Targeted Council Districts, 2001
City
Districts
Total LA
Universe
Total LA
Universe Voted
%
Turnout
Los Angeles
1
4,340
2,810
64.75%
Los Angeles
3
2,309
1,268
54.92%
Los Angeles
7
5,156
3,287
63.75%
Los Angeles
9
3,577
2,345
65.56%
Los Angeles
13
4,521
2,775
61.38%
Los Angeles
14
5,074
3,110
61.29%
Los Angeles
15
3,423
1,852
54.10%
Total
28,400
17,447
61.43%
Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute

This targeted effort produced a turnout almost twice as high as the citywide total voter average of 37.60%. Moreover, in councilmanic districts that SVREP targeted Latino voters the turnout ranged from 65.56% to 54.10%. That means that the SVREP targeted Latino Voters turned out at a higher rate than all voters, as well as, Latino voters at both the city council and citywide levels.

City of Los Angeles, Citywide Total and Latino Turnout, 2001
City
Total
Turnout
Latino
Turnout
% Total
Turnout
% Latino
Turnout
Los Angeles
576,825
136,735
37.60%
43.26%
Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute

Hahn vs. Villaraigosa

According to the Los Angeles Times Poll study #460 Antonio Villaraigosa received 82% of the Latino vote and subsequently James K. Hahn received 18% of the Latino vote. Also the poll states that with the heavy African American (80%) and Conservative (73%) support James K. Hahn was able to win the election decisively by a 53 to 46, or a margin of 40,180 votes.

Los Angeles Times Poll
(numbers in percentages)
Candidates
ALL
LIB
MOD
CON
WHT
BLK
LAT
ASN
James K. Hahn
54
41
62
73
59
80
18
65
Antonio Villaraigosa
46
59
38
27
41
20
82
35
Source: Los Angeles Times, Study #460

Had the Latino vote citywide turnout been 63.2%, more than 199,759 Latino would have voted. Assuming the rate of Latinos voting for Villaraigosa remains constant at 82% he would have received an additional 51,679 Latino votes. The chart below illustrates such a scenario. This sequence of events would have led to the victory of Villaraigosa.

City of Los Angeles, Citywide Latino Turnout Scenario

Latino
Registration
Latino
Turnout
Latino
Turnout
New Latino
Votes for Hahn
New Latino Votes
for Villraigosa
316,074
63.2%
199,759
11,344
51,679

2001 Election Scenario
Candidate for Mayor
Votes
Percent
Diff
James K. Hahan
316,135
49.99%
Antonio Villaraigosa
316,290
50.01%
155
Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute

Latino Voter Registration 2004 vs. 2001

As of the November 2004 Presidential Election the number of registered Latino voters in the City of Los Angeles has decreased to 314,925. This is a decrease from 2001 of 1,149 Latino voters. Although a numerically small decrease, it is important to note that the overall citywide voter registration fell from 1.5 million in 2001 to 1.38 million in 2004. This caused an increase in the Latino Voter Share from 20.38% in 2001 to 22.67% in 2004.

District
2001
2004
Total
Voter
Latino
Voter
% Latino
Voter Share
Total
Voter
Latino
Voter
% Latino
Voter Share
1
53,393
28,210
52.83%
48,655
26,706
54.89%
2
106,082
24,699
22.88%
111,456
16,764
15.04%
3
119,024
15,920
13.12%
115,227
14,382
12.48%
4
123,440
13,523
10.89%
110,676
12,959
11.71%
5
150,747
8,077
5.31%
149,468
6,223
4.16%
6
136,888
14,044
10.17%
62,811
28,015
44.60%
7
68,168
37,620
54.75%
64,078
33,938
52.96%
8
105,291
13,196
12.30%
94,930
14,966
15.77%
9
65,188
18,683
28.37%
54,659
20,030
36.65%
10
82,560
15,019
17.94%
81,733
15,849
19.39%
11
139,357
9,952
7.06%
142,234
13,380
9.41%
12
131,533
18,531
13.79%
121,731
15,807
12.99%
13
75,814
26,276
34.55%
68,060
25,388
37.30%
14
79,000
45,201
56.99%
76,960
43,139
56.05%
15
95,995
27,123
27.89%
86,443
27,379
31.67%
Total
1,532,480
316,074
20.63%
1,389,121
314,925
22.67%
Source: Political Data, Inc., William C. Velasquez Institute
 
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Los Angeles City Mayroal
Election Full Analysis

Los Angeles Mayoral
Election Official Canvass
July 2001

Los Angeles Mayoral
Election Unofficial Canvass
June 2001

Los Angeles Mayoral
Election Primary Canvass
April 2001