2008 Presidential General Election Polls - Pre-Election Analysis

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE - October 16, 2008

Contacts: Michael Bustamante, 916.425.0839; Steven Ochoa, 323.222.2217

Complete Report: Click Here


New Findings by Nonpartisan Think Tank Identifies Influence of Latino Vote in Several Key Battleground States

Los Angeles, CA – A new study of four key battleground states by the William C. Velasquez Institute (WCVI), a national Latino non-partisan public policy organization, has found that if the election were held today, Latino voters would provide the margin of victory for democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Nevada , Colorado and New Mexico .

“The Latino vote is an influential block of voters in three of the four battleground states we examined,” said Steven Ochoa, Vice President of Public Policy and Research for WCVI. “When it comes to the four battleground states we examined our findings are clear – Latino voters provide the margin of victory for Senator Obama in three ( New Mexico , Colorado , and Nevada ) of four key battleground states. In Florida , Latino voters provide no advantage to either side in the race for the presidency, a new trend in a state where Cuban Republicans have traditionally influenced elections for the Republican party.”

Examining a number of recently conducted polling data from organizations including Gallup, Pew, Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Latino Decisions, Mason Dixon, and Quinnipiag University, to name a few, WCVI’s analysis of voter trends determined that in the states of Colorado and Nevada, the lead among Latino voters accounts for an overwhelming share of Senator Obama’s lead over Senator McCain. In New Mexico , Latino voters are the decisive factor in Senator Obama’s lead of Senator McCain.

Separating out Latino voters in Colorado , the race between Obama and McCain would result in a statistical tie, with Obama leading McCain 44.24% to 42.41%. Factoring in Latino voters, Obama’s lead would jump to 51% to 45% over McCain. Again, separating out Latino voters in Nevada , Obama’s lead over McCain would be within the margin of error, 42.4% to 40.7%. Including Latino voters, Obama’s lead would grow to 50% to 43%.

In New Mexico , without Latino voters, Senator McCain has a four-point lead over Senator Obama, 34.6% to 30.6%. With such a sizable Latino electorate – about one-third of registered voters – Latinos account for more than 21% of Obama’s support, pushing his margin over McCain by 8 points, 54% to 44%.

In Florida , polling without Latino voters show Obama with a statistical tie 42.6% to 40.3% over McCain. However, unlike the other three battleground states, when the Latino vote is factored in, the race would continue to be a statistical dead heat, with Senator Obama leading Senator McCain, 48% to 46%.

“These analyses show that increases in the Latino vote translate into a decisive influence in three states, and reverse a traditional trend in the fourth,” said Antonio Gonzalez, president of WCVI. “We believe between 8.5 and 9.5 million Latinos will cast a ballot for president this election cycle, an increase of about 1-2 million more Latino voters than in 2004. That is significant and, in the case of three key battleground states, would prove decisive if the election were held today.”

To review the complete analysis, please click here.

About WCVI

The William C. Velásquez Institute (WCVI) is a tax-exempt, non-profit, non-partisan public policy analysis organization chartered in 1985. The purpose of WCVI is to: conduct research aimed at improving the level of political and economic participation in Latino and other underrepresented communities; To provide information to Latino leaders relevant to the needs of their constituents; To inform the Latino leadership and public about the impact of public policies on Latinos; To inform the Latino leadership and public about political opinions and behavior of Latinos.

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For more information contact Steven Ochoa at 323.222.2217

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